50/50

As many of you know I'm preparing for an upcoming fishing trip to beautiful Montana.  Way back when we were scheduling this trip, a little research was necessary.  We've gotten bit by high flows the past two years which made the wade fishing a little tough, so this year we were pondering moving the trip up into April to avoid the May runoff flows.  Our research told us the average highs in late March, early April appear to be upper 40s, the average flows are just barely starting to come up from the winter minimum, and the water temps are usually increasing into the mid 40s. 

All of these things made us think the fishing could be quite good, but the weather aspect has worried me a little.  I've been fishing in 10deg, 35deg and rainy, and 30deg and windy so it's not that I'm all that worried.  But I've also been fishing in Montana in May with temps in the low 70s and I know how nice it can be and I do value my own comfort.  I also know that with average temps in the upper 40s, that doesn't mean I can rely on the temps being that high.  It means there's a 50/50 chance it will be a beautiful partly sunny 55deg, and on the flip side a 50/50 chance it will be 33 and rainy or 10 degrees.  We will survive either way, but the 55deg and partly sunny would be very very nice.

I have been watching the weather lately.  The trip is in 2 weeks, so I'm starting to get an idea of what to expect, and it's pretty much exactly what I thought.  I added a town near where we are going to my Iphone weather app and am checking it weekly.  Last week it was:

Then this week I saw things continuing to look more positive:

What in the world will it be like when we are there??  Nobody knows!  That's part of the fun.  I just hope the good weather doesn't get used up this week.